Showing posts with label japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label japan. Show all posts
January 07, 2012

Memory and Perspective: Civil War, Pearl Harbor, Iraq

We have written before of the importance of memory, relying on "The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting" as a shibboleth.

Today we would like to expand the discussion of memory as essential to progress, and start off with American pragmatist George Santayana's "The One who does not remember history is bound to live through it again", shown as an inscription at Auschwitz.





First, we highly recommend Ta-Nehisi Coates' article in the Atlantic, Why do so few blacks study the civil war?

In my opinion it's a landmark document. It's a pleasure to see a good person's oeuvre distilled into a single work that has the potential to change the culture.
Coates establishes slavery, explicit in the South but also exploited by the North, as the cause of the Civil War, and repositions the conflict as possibly the consummation of the Revolutionary War rather than it's current place as the war that white people all feel bad about.




Second, we suggest Robert Wright's "Ron Paul Vindicated (Unfortunately):
A week ago Ron Paul tried to convey how the ever-tightening sanctions on Iran--which may soon include an embargo on its oil--look from an Iranian point of view: It's as if China were to blockade the Gulf of Mexico, he said--"an act of war".

This is sheer conjecture; Ron Paul is no expert on Iran. But now someone who does have relevant credentials has weighed in, and the picture he paints is disturbingly reminiscent of the one Paul painted. It suggests we may be closer to war than most people realize.


That piece leads to Vali Nasr's article in Bloomberg, "Hard-line U.S. Policy Tips Iran Toward Belligerence".
Tensions between Iran and the U.S. are so high, a conflagration could be tripped off without either country intending it. This latest spiral of hostility began after the U.S. and its European allies responded to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report on Iran’s nuclear activities by imposing and threatening additional, tougher sanctions. New U.S. measures may drastically cut Iran’s oil revenue.

To escape this self-defeating outcome, the Western powers should imagine how the situation looks from Tehran.


Robert Wright picks up on Vali Nasr's suggestion, and imagines how it looks from Tehran:
Iran's nuclear scientists have recently evinced a tendency to get assassinated, and a mysterious explosion at a military facility happened to kill the general in charge of Iran's missile program. These things were almost certainly done by Israel, possibly with American support. If you were Iranian, would you consider assassinations on your soil grounds for attacking the suspected perpetrators?

Underlying our Iran strategy is the assumption that if we keep ratcheting up the pressure, the regime will eventually say uncle. A problem with this premise is that throughout human history rulers have shown an aversion to being seen by their people as surrendering. Indeed, when you face dissent, as the Iranian regime does, there's actually a certain appeal to confronting an external threat, since confrontation tends to consolidate domestic support. As Nasr puts it, "the ruling clerics are responding with shows of strength to boost solidarity at home."

This doesn't mean Iran's rulers haven't wanted to make a deal. But it does mean the deal would have to leave these rulers with a domestically plausible claim to have benefited from it, and it also means these leaders can't afford to be seen begging for the deal. When President Ahmadinejad visited New York last year, he gave reporters unmistakable signals that he wanted to negotiate, but the Obama administration chose to ignore them. After Ahmadinejad "went home empty handed," reports Nasr, power increasingly shifted to Iranians who argued for confrontation over diplomacy.

Even so, Iran's foreign minister made another appeal to re-open talks only days ago, suggesting that they be held in Turkey. But, as the New York Times reported, western nations interpreted this overture "as an effort by Iran to buy time to continue its program." Got that? If Iranians refuse to negotiate it means they don't want a deal, and if they ask to negotiate it means they don't want a deal.

Nasr says the tightening of the screws is making Iran increasingly determined to get nuclear weapons--not to start a war, but to prevent one. Having seen what happened to Muammar Qaddafi, says Nasr, Iran's leaders worry that foreign powers would "feel safe enough to interfere in the affairs of a non-nuclear-armed state."


And so we go back to Santayana, remembering that while the Japanese attack on the United States at Pearl Harbor was precipitated by many things, the final straw that moved plans into action was the US freezing all Japanese assets and Roosevelt's imposition of an oil embargo in July 1941. Which is pretty much what we're doing with Iran right now.

This is how a Japanese pilot saw Pearl Harbor in December 1941:


We can try to see their side first, and work for our goals within that understanding, or maybe we can eventually see what it looks like to them from their combat cameras.
June 15, 2011

Turning Japanese I Think I'm

I think many people felt a bit smug about the recent Japanese nuclear disaster, which followed the Japanese tsunami disaster.

Why would those silly people put nuclear power plants in a place that could get flooded? Why would they rely on a cooling system that could get knocked out? We'd never do that.

OMAHA, Neb. (June 8) A small fire briefly knocked out the cooling system for used fuel at a nuclear power plant in Nebraska, but temperatures never exceeded safe levels and power was quickly restored, federal officials said Wednesday.

Jun. 15, 2011, 4:02 PM Airspace Over Flooded Nebraska Nuclear Power Plant Still Closed

I'm really not sure that any of that smugness/schadenfreude is justified.



March 19, 2011

Is America Responsible for Japan's nuclear program ?

I can't recall the source - I think it's in the Analects - but an philosoper said: When you see somebody acting without wisdom, do not laugh at them but rather take it as a lesson and search for the same behavior in yourself. In that way, you can improve yourself on their dime.

I also believe that most contemporary problems are the result of what we once thought were really clever solutions, which we embraced and rewarded. When I see a problem, I try to ask what solution caused this problem?

Those are both good habits, but they're internal, ruminative, self-benefiting, and they are virtual in the sense that they do not engage the world; that is, they do not address the question of moral action.

I'm not nuanced enough for all this, so I've attempted to implement a shallower, more ego-centric version: when I see somebody (within my sphere, constrained by Dunbar's number) acting without wisdom in a significant thing, I ask myself, How might that be my fault?

If, on examination, I've contributed to the foolishness then I have an obligation to attempt to remedy the chain of events that I've caused. No blame, no guilt, just a duty.

Colin Powell said it much more elegantly when he described The Pottery Barn Rule: "You break it, you bought it".

Which is a very pedantic, verbose way of getting around to my topic:
Is Japan's nuclear crisis our (America's) fault?


From Bloomberg, today:
With almost no oil or gas reserves of its own, nuclear power has been a national priority for Japan since the end of World War II, a conflict the country fought partly to secure oil supplies.

The American vs. Japan aspect of World War Two was largely about Japan's energy needs. In 1937, the Second Sino-Japanese War began. Japan relied on energy imports, mostly from the United States. In an attempt to modify Japanese behavior through an oil crisis, the United States declared an oil embargo (in a way, we invented OPEC) and froze the assets of Japan. They couldn't get oil, and they couldn't pay for it.

The Japanese response was not as Washington hoped for. Japan met its energy needs by extorting concessions from the Dutch East Indies, coercing Vichy France into allowing Japanese occupation of northern Indochina, and beginning negotiations for an alliance with Germany and Italy.

It's a simplistic view of a complex scenario, but the US-Japanese conflict in WW2 was proximately caused by Japan's lack of native energy supplies and American constraint on energy imports.

After World War Two, Japan addressed her energy needs through nuclear power with American encouragement.

Who developed civilian nuclear power?

From President Eisenhower's 1953 Atoms For Peace speech,
"To the making of these fateful decisions, the United States pledges before you--and therefore before the world--its determination to help solve the fearful atomic dilemma--to devote its entire heart and mind to find the way by which the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life."

The United States then launched an "Atoms for Peace" program that supplied equipment and information to schools, hospitals, and research institutions within the U.S. and throughout the world. The first nuclear reactors in Iran and Pakistan were built under the Atoms for Peace program.

Which I think demonstrates my earlier point that today's problems are caused by yesterday's bright, clever solutions:
Iran and Pakistan got their first taste of nuclear reactors from the United States
. It's too facile to blame it all on A.Q. Khan

From Wikipedia:
The Shippingport Atomic Power Station, "the world’s first full-scale atomic electric power plant devoted exclusively to peacetime uses, was located near the present-day Beaver Valley Nuclear Generating Station on the Ohio River in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, USA, about 25 miles from Pittsburgh. The reactor went online December 2, 1957.


Who sold Nuclear Power to the Japanese?

We did. From Wikipedia:
In 1954, Japan budgeted 230 million yen for nuclear energy, marking the beginning of the [Japanese nuclear] program. The Atomic Energy Basic Law limited activities to only peaceful purposes.

In the 1970s the first Light Water Reactors were built in cooperation with American companies. These plants were bought from U.S. vendors such as General Electric or Westinghouse with contractual work done by Japanese companies...

The nuclear industry in Japan has been highly affected by its United States counterpart. The industry has become confident that the U.S. will see construction of new nuclear plants. Joint [US-Japanese] venture agreements between the major nuclear fuel vendors occurred in 1999, 2006, and 2007, following from the legacy of co-operation that began when Japan imported Western technology to jump start its nuclear industry.

We continue to sell nuclear power to Japan

The United States-Japan Joint Nuclear Energy Action Plan is a bilateral agreement aimed at putting in place a framework for the joint research and development of nuclear energy technology. The agreement was signed on April 18, 2007. It is believed that the agreement is the first that the US has signed to develop nuclear power technologies with another country.

Is America responsible for Japan's nuclear program?


I think so. We caused the need, we sold them our solution, and we profited from it.
March 18, 2011

Japan Imports US Robots for Nuclear Duty



We (generally) only know what people are willing to tell us, and there are a lot of motivations for dissembling.

In the Cold War, we made estimates of Russian strength and they made estimates of American strength. Since funding only flowed to the military-industrial complex for projects in which the enemy held the advantage, it is not remarkable that each side's bureaucracy overestimated the strength of the other. It was in everybody's interest to escalate the arms race, with the possible exception of the citizens of either country — who might have preferred that the resources were used to, say, fight childhood malnutrition or cure cancer (which, if I remember, Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971, forty years ago. We've built a lot more weapon systems than we've built cancer cures.)

We're told that the Japanese are eating America's lunch on robotics and technology. The demos are remarkable.






NY Times, pre-firewall:
At the request of the Japanese military,
a Massachusetts company, iRobot, said it put four robots on a plane for Japan on Friday
. Colin Angle, the chief executive, said it had sent two small robots that could measure radiation levels close to the reactors and two larger ones that could pull hoses to spray water on the fuel rods.

He said the robots might be able to tug the hoses for 200 to 300 yards. Japanese soldiers could operate the robots from a protected vehicle, he said.


From NECN: "iRobot is sending two of its packbots...and two warrior robots to Japan, along with six employees. The pack bots will be equipped with a hazmat sensor...the warriors will be fitted with a special gripper that can hold a fire hose. Both are able to go where humans can not."

From UberGizmo: "The team that consists of PackBots and Warrior robots have been designed to work in such situations... The robots can be sent out into the field, while the controllers can stay inside protected vehicles where they will be safe from radiation. The PackBot can be used to determine how dangerous the radiation levels are, and the Warrior could be used to pull hoses into “hot zones”, delivering cold water where it is needed inside the nuclear reactors."

Kirsten Korosec, in Why Japan’s Nuclear Plants Sacrifice Workers Instead of Robots, argues that it's not a technological issue as much as a cultural issue.
...there’s a competing culture in Japan, one that relies on humans for tasks that have given way to automation in the rest of the world. Add an ingrained worker culture that places extraordinary value on selflessness, modesty and consensus-building to the mix, and it’s easier to understand how TEPCO could see the low-tech human approach as the right choice.

Reuters explains that Japan is a world-leader in robotics in many fields, but that cultural issues inhibit Japanese systems engineers from considering worst-case scenarios, which involve a tacit loss of face.


Lest we become smug, let me point out that this is the American military-industrial complex seizing an opportunity to extend military capabilities into the civilian market. We probably wouldn't have PackBots and WarriorBots if it weren't for our misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan.


Update: click here for WIlliam Saletan on Japan and nuke-plant robots.
March 14, 2011

Alternative Energy: A Call for Help, Looking for a 12-Step Plan



When people once capable of rational thought persist in counter-productive and even self-destructive behavior over long periods of time, there are a few possible explanations:
  • insanity
  • addiction
  • greed
Often, family and friends wonder: what will it take to change this? Which 12-Step program is best?

People with experience say that (1) they have to hit bottom, and (2) they have to want to change. (and: nobody ever wants to change)

Thinking globally and citing locally



Coal is dangerous to mine and hazardous to the environment. Black lungs and acid rain. (see, Upper Big Branch and Quecreek Mine)

Oil is dangerous to store (see, Ashland), hazardous to the environment (see, Deepwater Horizon), and most of it belongs to other people who are disinclined to share (see, OPEC).

Natural Gas is dangerous to store, and collecting it through hydraulic fracturing is an ecological disaster. (see, Dimock, PA)

Nuclear power works real well unless until there's a problem and then it's a catastrophe. (see, Three Mile Island)






Hydroelectric. Works in Nevada. And Pennsylvania.

Solar. Works in Philadelphia and on the North Side.

Wind mills. Work in the Netherlands. And Somerset.

Geothermal. Works in Iceland. West Virginia's thinking about it.



What will it take?

What will it take to get us moving to alternative energy sources? Do we have to wait until Corporations figure out how to sell the wind?

If people don't start acting smart about this (and pretty quickly) I'm going to have to become an environmentalist, and that's really not my self-image. And it's all about me.