Take Your Child To Work Day: April 22nd

In this week's news we've seen a lot of discussion about taking your kid to work and showing them what you do, and even giving them a little bit of experience at it.

As this 1968 documentary from the REMCO Corporation shows, kids have been training to work at Kennedy Airport for at least 42 years:


Needless to say, the tone of this year's Bring Your Kid to Work Day (BYK2WD) is probably going to be slightly different. Mark your calendars, Thursday April 22nd.

Why are airport / airline delays the same, year after year?

Why are airline / airport delays the same, year after year? Why don't the airlines change their schedules and prevent these delays? Because it's profitable. The airlines and airports have calculated that it's in their interest to perpetuate the current system.

Overcrowded airports are the classic "Tragedy of the Commons" problem. When a common resource is overused, the over-user (the airline) profits, and the costs are transferred to the community (the passengers).

When an airline overschedules an airport with more paying passengers, they make more money from ticket sales; the costs of the overscheduling - the tremendous amount of time and inefficiency - is carried by the passengers, not the airline. Although the chipper flight attendant may say that they're sorry about the delay, in fact the airline intentionally schedules these situations year after year.

Local Collaborators

Local government, in some places the Port Authority and in others the Airport Authority, profits from overcrowded airports. Each one of those passengers pays an airport tax on their ticket. Every time they buy an overpriced pizza in the terminal, the airport gets a slice of it.

Nothing is more profitable for an airport than an overscheduled hub operation. Think about a meeting at generic Port Authority, when MegaAir comes in and proposes to route an additional 15,000 people through their terminal everyday.
Port Auth: What does the Port Authority get out of this?
Mega Air: Well, increased landing fees per plane, and the $5 airport use tax for each person that lands, and each person that departs.
Port Auth: We're getting that $5 airport tax already.
Mega Air: But now we're going to route 15,000 connections — people in Toledo, who want to be in Tampa — through your airport. You'll get $5 when they come in, and $5 when they go out.
Port Auth: What's the downside?
Mega Air: Well, if there's thunderstorms or snow, the terminal's going to get very crowded when our connecting schedule goes crazy. It happens every time.
Port Auth: But we'd still get $10 apiece from 15,000 people a day, none of whom would ordinarily be here?
Mega Air: That's right.
Port Auth: Works for me. Let's see, $10 times 15K x 365. That's $55 million a year. Yeah, that works.

Port Authorities start off as a government agency, but they develop their own agendas and grow into a monster. In the NY metro area, the Port Authority of NY and NJ was given the bridges and airports to minimize inter-city and inter-state conflict. The Port Authority has become an autonomous government regime, accountable to nobody but themselves. They're a government that's not accountable to the voters. They're a corporation that acts in its own self-interest, just like any other.

In March 2010, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey will close Runway 13R-31L at Kennedy. This one project (of many) is a $376 million dollar project. That $376,000,000 is mostly federal money that the Port Authority gets to distribute to contractors, suppliers, and vendors. There's a lot of concrete companies and union construction jobs in a $376 million project, and a lot of patronage and influence even when everything's legit.

What a shell game. The Feds put up 90% of the $376M. The Port Authority distributes it and builds influence and power, and then they tell the Feds to piss off. Bada bing, bada boom.

The Port Authority of NY-NJ is bigger than the governor of either state. They're accountable to nobody. They hire lobbying firms to influence Legislatures and Elections. They're a democratic nightmare, a big budget and a powerful organization with no accountability and no oversight. They have their own think tank. The Port Authority has a power base that no politician dares to challenge. By the way, guess who owned the World Trade Center?

One out of six (16%) of Port Authority employees take home more than $100,000 per year. They do this through $8 ticket fees and $8 bridge tolls, some of which is paid by people who make $8 an hour.

The Port Authority profits from the over-scheduling of LGA, EWR, and JFK, and they'll defend their status quo cash-cow against any reform. The Port Authority does not operate those airports for the good of the New York metro population or economy; they operate those airports for the good of the Port Authority. (Rational self-interest, for all you Ayn Rand fans out there.)

Same as it Ever Was, Same as it Ever Was

Last year the Federal Aviation Administration announced that it intended to reintroduce flight caps based on runway capacity at Kennedy airport. One year ago today, Aug. 5, 2008, the Port Authority announced that it would fight the Federal flight restrictions as an unwelcome intrusion. The Port Authority estimated that the caps would cost it $200 Million a year in lost passenger ticket fees alone. (That's the basis of my generic PortAuthority/MegaAir discussion above).


The Port Authority told the airlines that any flight that participated in the slots system might land, but they couldn't pull into the Port Authority's terminal; they'd have to taxi back out and fly away. That's power. A local authority tells the airlines that if they cooperate with FAA, they'll be locked out of their terminals. Once that threat was made, all the airlines publicly supported the Port Authority's position.



New York City's Mayor Bloomberg bucked the Port Authority and backed the FAA's proposal.

The FAA said that if the Port Authority persisted, they'd risk losing federal money.


NY Senator Chuck Schumer told the FAA that they wouldn't get any Senate approvals for personnel or budgets until the issue was resolved. Who blinked? The Feds blinked. The Port Authority won (as the house always does). The airline schedule, and airport delays, continue unabated.

In a final show of chutzpah, the Port Authority published its own list of steps to reduce delays — no flight caps, no new runways, but lots of money for the Port Authority for more taxiways and technology.

Chuck Schumer, who does have a pretty good handle on air traffic staffing (he gets the difference between a trainee and a controller), continues to berate the FAA for delays in the New York area airports. That's incongruous with his actions last year to prevent flight caps based on runway capacity.

Want to know why we have the same delays year after year? Because the Airlines and the Airports find it profitable and in their interest.

Airport Delays and Capacity : Runways vs NextGen at JFK

I know that this August is a terrible time for delays and frustration, particularly in the New York City airports - EWR, LGA, JFK. I would like to summon the voice of Zero Mostel (or maybe Ed Koch) to intone, "So, you think this year is bad? Feh! Wait till you see next year!"

Kennedy Airport - I remember back when it was Idlewild - has four runways. Next spring, they're going to close the longest runway (the bayside runway, 13R-31L) for maintenance. That's March, April, May, June, July of 2010. August is going to look great at JFK next year after March through July.

One-third of all JFK operations happen on runway 13L-31R. JetBlue, who's business is based on their hub operation at Kennedy, is quite concerned.

Port Authority Director Chris Ward described the rehab as "open heart surgery" on an airport. Port Authority officals said the Federal Aviation Administration would "reschedule flights" so the other three runways could "absorb" the extra traffic. (That's an illusion if not an outright lie. They're just blame-framing. Let's be clear: the Port Authority is closing the runway. They're preparing to blame the FAA for the delays.)

As in all public works, the trade-off is a season of inconvenience for a decade of improved conditions. Next spring at Kennedy: FUBAR.

To me, this is an opportunity for evaluation. There are two schools of thought on what causes delays in general, and in NY's Big Three in particular. Perhaps this opportunity will serve to illuminate our minds.

The Robert Poole / Reason Foundation / military - industrial - complex says that delays are caused by an outdated, WW2-era air traffic control system. The Next-Gen vendors (who, remarkably, sell a solution) have repeatedly told Congre$$ that NextGen's advanced capabilities are essential to avoiding delays.

All the air traffic people I know say that delays are caused by airline schedules that exceed runway capacity.



This runway closure provides a comparative test-bed, a way to find out which theory is more valid. In Karl Popper's words, one or more of these theories is falsifiable. Our body of knowledge will be advanced by identifying which position is flawed. The test of a theory, you'll remember, is (1) is it falsifiable?, (2) does it explain what we observe?, and (3) does it help predict the future?

If Robert Poole and the NextGen Salesmen are right, they should be able to implement satellite-based procedures that avoid delays during the construction closure. No big deal.

If the runways-as-constraint contingent is right, the fact that runways are the limiting factor will be amply demonstrated when they close JFK's longest runway for months. Major delays.

I have a follow-up question: We know about this mishmash seven months before the event. Nobody will be surprised by it. If there are delays, caused by the airlines scheduling too many airplanes for a time when the airport's capacity is limited, will we call it an ATC Delay, or will we call it an Airline Scheduling Delay, or will we call it a Port Authority Delay? I'm just asking.

If anybody wishes to place a small, friendly wager on the outcome, leave me some contact info in the Comments section. After this paving job in Queens is done, there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you. (I'll note that Robert Poole is into privatizing bridges, too.)

A New York NextGen Metaphor

skimmers - click for main point

When spokesmen, rhetoricians and salesmen announce – hey, there’s a new technology that's going to set us free, those Luddites infatuated with the status quo are just trying to keep their own good thing going, this is just featherbedding by their Union – well, the public doesn’t know which experts to listen to. It comes down to competing stories, because the public isn't qualified to judge on technical grounds. Is it Who do you find believable, or is it Who's told you the story that you most want to believe?

One of the things that I've learned is that when change is profitable, change will have prophets. When there's no industry profit in maintaining the status quo, then there'll be no advocates for the status quo. When they say "we need to replace the whole system", look for who profits from the change and then consider their spokesmen anew.

You’ll remember that we said that airplanes are a lot like cars when they’re on runways (which are roads for airplanes). When airplanes are landing and taking off, they’re two-dimensional. In aviation, runways are the constraints.

A New York State of Mind

When we talk about New York airports, we're really talking about Newark, LaGuardia, and Kennedy. And why is that? Because they're all owned by the same corporation, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ.gov). Remember that - there's a corporation that owns all three airports. In fact, if you go to their website, you'll see this cute little logo on the right. If you click on that logo, you'll see PANYNJ's webpage titled, "Next Gen Now!"

---

Once Upon a Time...

Here’s a little story that may explain why NextGen won’t solve the problem of New York's airport congestion.

Let’s say you’ve got a city – why, let’s call it Gotham. You can only drive in or out of the city via three bridges – the GWB to the west, the VNB to the south, and the TNB to the east. (Work with me here.) Every day, 5.8 million people want to drive across those three bridges, in and out of the city. They do this in cars, vans, buses, and trucks. There is no control over who can come in, where they come in, when they leave - it's completely up for grabs.


Almost six million people drive into the city in the morning. At 4:00 am, the bridge system is happy, peaceful, and underused. At 5:00 am, the system is operating effectively – no delays. At 7:30 am, traffic volume exceeds the capacity of the bridges. The highways (which have more lanes than the bridges they feed) start backing up. Delays. Congestion. Frustration.

The Gotham Bridge Authority (GBA) is not uncaring. They don’t want to see delays. They experimented with off-peak pricing, making the bridges free during off-peak hours and collecting double fares during busy hours, but that seemed to have perverse and unintended effects.

They implemented one-way tolls, so that drivers paid a double fee in one direction and no fee in the other - this made things better, but there was still congestion. They implemented EZ-OnePass, but when the demand grew high, the bridges were still clogged.



A think-tank visionary comes along and says, “We’re going to equip each vehicle with a CB-radio. Armed with this technology, drivers will be able to communicate with each other, learn about delays, and reroute themselves. The Market can solve this problem”.

A partnership executive comes along and says “We’re going to put a GPS in each vehicle so they can reroute themselves efficiently, and in fact these fancy GPS units will receive real-time traffic reports so drivers can make informed choices.”

Reporters covering their press conference were wondering who Adam Smith was; the two advocates talked about him and his invisible hand a lot, but he never appeared. Probably a wonk consultant.

The public found the proposal persuasive. Everytime traffic backed up, they used their cellphones to call Chuck Schumer. Senator Schumer ranted and raged about how Gotham deserved only the best. And so it came to be - everybody had to buy a GPS and a CB radio for their car. The local electronics industry was booming.

The Moment of Truth

And yet remarkably, on a Friday afternoon at 5:30, you still can’t drive across the GWB, TNG, or VNB without significant delays. If it’s snowing: Fuhgeddaboudit.

Does any New Yorker believe that if every driver had a CB and a GPS, that traffic congestion over the George Washington Bridge, the Verrazano Narrows Bridge, and the Throg Neck Bridge would go away? Does anybody believe it? Because that's the pitch they're hoping you'll believe about airplanes.

Those three bridges in our story are just like the runways at JFK, EWR, and LGA. They’re the constraints. All the cars have to pass through the bridges. All the planes have to go through those runways. All the CB radios, TomTom GPS's, datalinks and ADS-Bs aren’t going to significantly change that reality. NextGen will do nothing to resolve airline congestion at Kennedy, Newark, and LaGuardia.

But they'd like to sell you some gizmo's if you're buying.

What Happened?

New Yorkers clamored for an investigation; they'd been told that the technology and Adam Smith would solve their problems. They'd all bought CB's and fancy GPSs, and in fact some people who couldn't afford them had stopped driving and rode the bus. Why was there no significant benefit?

The Post discovered that one advocate was paid by a series of grants from the Citizens Band Advocacy Group, a market-based think tank funded by the manufacturers of CB radios. The Daily News reported that the other advocate was funded by the TomTom Group, a future-focused think tank financed by a series of grants from the GPS industry. The Times reported that they both had grants from the Gotham Bridge Authority, who it seems had a vested interest in their monopoly over access to Gotham.

If you stood in the toll plaza during rush hour and spoke with a commuter, sitting in stopped traffic with his CB and GPS, and asked him who was at fault, you'd probably hear that the villian was a consultant named Adam Smith, who'd gone into hiding and disappeared. Nobody could find him. There wasn't any sign of him or his invisible hand.

And they all lived, happily ever after...